With Super Rugby reaching the Qualifiers, we take a look at the best bets from the three games which take place on Saturday.
Crusaders v Sharks
On paper, this seems like it should be a comfortable victory for the hosts. They are the defending champions, have won their past 12 games and are favourites to retain the title after finishing top of the Super Rugby standings.
The record of South African teams in play-off games in New Zealand sides also makes for ominous reading with them yet to triumph in 13 attempts. It should go out to 14, particularly with the bookmakers giving odds of 1/20 (bet365, Betfred and BoyleSports) for Scott Robertson’s men to claim the win, but the Sharks do have the physicality to challenge the Christchurch-based outfit.
While the All Blacks and their franchises are renowned for their tempo and skill set, the Crusaders also have the best front five in the competition. It is effectively an international forward eight with Scott Barrett in particularly outstanding form but, in Thomas du Toit, Akker van der Merwe and Tendai Mtawarira, the Durban team do have a front-row which could cause problems for the hosts.
An injury to Jean-Luc du Preez is a loss in the back-row but they have plenty of power throughout the XV and have performed well against New Zealand teams this season. It may not be enough, with them 9/1 at various companies to cause an upset, but it could be closer than most reckon and they are 5/4 (Ladbrokes and Coral) on a +17 handicap.
Waratahs v Highlanders
Unlike the opening game on Saturday, the next two are much more difficult to call with the Waratahs looking to finally bring some joy to Australian rugby. They face, on paper at least, the weakest of the remaining New Zealand teams, with the Highlanders finishing in fourth place in their conference.
That means little according to the bookies, however, with Aaron Mauger’s men still seen as favourites going into this encounter. They were able to rest a number of star players in the final match of the regular-season and the likes of Luke Whitelock, Rob Thompson and Aaron and Ben Smith return to the XV.
As a result, 888sport have the visitors down at 11/17 to secure their place in the semi-finals, while the Waratahs are 13/10 outsiders with bet365 and Black Type to claim the victory. It is slightly surprising after the Waratahs’ dominant 41-12 triumph over the Dunedin-based franchise earlier in the campaign. Although that result came after the visitors had been reduced to 14 men following Tevita Nabura’s red card, Daryl Gibson’s side were already in control before that incident
The absence of Michael Hooper is a blow for the Australians, though, and it could prove decisive on Saturday, but we think that backing the Waratahs is the more prudent option.
Lions v Jaguares
The last match of the Qualifiers sees an all-South African Conference affair as the seventh place Jaguares travel to Johannesburg to take on the Lions – finalists from the last two years.
If their form from 2016 and ‘17 is anything to go by, this should be a comfortable victory for the hosts, but they have struggled to find that dominance during the 2018 season. Saturday’s opponents were in contention for top spot in the division before Swys de Bruin’s men finished the campaign strongly to claim second in the overall standings and a home quarter.
With the advantage of playing at Ellis Park, the bookmakers think that De Bruin’s charges will make it to a third consecutive semi-final, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power all having them down at 3/10, but the Argentines are a dangerous proposition this year.
Under Mario Ledesma they have impressed and should challenge the hosts, despite having to play the match at altitude. They like to play expansively and, at 3/1 with Marathonbet and Black Type, the Jags are worth backing.