Month: September 2020

AUSTIN, Texas — Texas Republicans are sounding the alarm as Democratic presidential candidates get ready for their debate next week in Houston, warning that the Lone Star State could become more purple if the party doesn’t treat it as a 2020 battleground.

Most in the GOP are confident President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE will win Texas and its 38 electoral votes next year, and they think Texas GOP Sen. John CornynJohn CornynSenate headed for late night vote amid standoff over lands bill Koch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators Tim Scott to introduce GOP police reform bill next week MORE will turn aside his Democratic challenger.

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But they are worried they will lose more House seats a cycle after Democrats clawed back two districts as they retook their majority.

Five House Republicans have retired, including three in seats targeted by Democrats. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates them as either toss-ups or lean Democratic.

More broadly, Texas Republicans say the GOP can’t rest on its laurels in a state that is growing more competitive.

“We need all hands on deck and all Texans to pull together to make sure we don’t let the Democrats put an end to the longest successful run in Texas history,” said James Dickey, the chairman of the Texas Republican Party.

Top Texas GOP fundraisers who are used to exporting campaign cash to more competitive races elsewhere are looking to keep donor money in-state this cycle.

“There’s a lot of apathy and smugness and laziness here on the Republican side that’s got to be reversed or there will be a shock to the system at some point,” said George Seay, a Dallas businessman and top GOP fundraiser in Texas.

Demographics are slowly but surely changing the state as an influx of voters from California and other left-leaning states move to Texas.

GOP support is eroding in the suburbs surrounding Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, four of the nation’s largest and fastest growing metro areas. That’s particularly worrisome to Republicans leery of Trump’s popularity with suburban voters.

A Democrat has not won statewide in Texas since 1994, the longest such streak in the nation.

But Trump won Texas by only 9 points in 2016, the worst showing for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years. Jimmy CarterJimmy CarterCNN Films acquires rights to ‘Jimmy Carter Rock & Roll President’ documentary The Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Trump job approval rating plunges 10 points in a month: Gallup MORE in 1976 was the last Democratic presidential nominee to win the state.

There are fears that further slippage at the top of the ticket will cost the GOP House seats and potentially a majority in the state house. Democrats defeated longtime GOP incumbents in Houston and Dallas in 2018 and six other Republican House members won reelection by 5 points or fewer. Of those, Reps. Will HurdWilliam Ballard HurdHouse Republicans hopeful about bipartisan path forward on police reform legislation House GOP delays police reform bill The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests MORE, Kenny MarchantKenny Ewell MarchantMinority caucuses endorse Texas Afro-Latina for Congress Latina underdog for Texas House seat picks up steam Texas kicks off critical battle for House control MORE and Pete OlsonPeter (Pete) Graham OlsonPeople over politics on PPP funding Kulkarni wins Texas House Democratic primary Former sheriff, GOP mega-donor headed to runoff in Texas GOP race MORE are retiring, while Reps. Michael McCaulMichael Thomas McCaul The Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Association of American Railroads Ian Jefferies says no place for hate, racism or bigotry in rail industry or society; Trump declares victory in response to promising jobs report Ousted watchdog says he told top State aides about Pompeo probe US to slap restrictions on more Chinese media outlets: report MORE, Chip RoyCharles (Chip) Eugene RoySmall businesses receive much-needed Paycheck Protection Program fixes House passes bill to grant flexibility for small business aid program The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Major space launch today; Trump feuds with Twitter MORE and John CarterJohn Rice CarterLawmakers call on VA to remove swastikas from headstones in veterans cemeteries Warren announces slate of endorsements including Wendy Davis and Cornyn challenger Hegar Liberal group endorses Royce West for Texas Senate MORE face tough reelection battles.

“Our concern isn’t so much whether Trump or Cornyn wins in Texas, it’s their margins of victory that will help us keep those contested House seats,” said Corbin Casteel, a longtime Republican strategist in Austin.

Texas’s booming economy has attracted a young and diverse workforce from more liberal parts of the country, such as California, Illinois and New York.

The running joke in GOP circles is that Trump should build a wall along the northern border in Texas to keep the liberals out.

Republicans argue that conservative policies led to the economic conditions that have been a magnet for job-seekers and employers, and they believe that many people moving to the state will be receptive to that message.

But they also acknowledge that domestic migration has hastened the state’s political realignment, particularly in the fast-growing metro areas that account for more than two-thirds of the state’s voting population.

“The suburban counties just cannot be taken for granted,” said Bill Miller, a GOP lobbyist and consultant in Texas. “Republicans took them for granted in the past election and paid a steep price for that. The reason Texas is not more purple is that rural Texas is still staunchly Republican. But the suburbs have changed, and so many of these races are just not a lock cinch for Republicans anymore.”

Republicans are rushing to address the perception that they’re predominately the party of older white men in an increasingly diverse state.

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“Doing the kind of outreach that we need to be doing is on everyone’s mind, from elected officials to the local county chairmen and the precinct chairs,” said Brendan Steinhauser, an Austin-based GOP strategist. “It’s time to follow through.”

Texas Republicans believe the Hispanic community is more receptive to the conservative message than many people realize.

But the party has a new problem: Polls indicate that the white women who voted for Trump in 2016 are abandoning him ahead of the 2020 election.

“We have to address this head on,” said Stacy Hock, the chairwoman of the Texas Republican Party’s Victory Committee. “We have to talk to women about the things they care about — the economy, opportunity, justice, education, health care and security. We have the case to make, but we’ve really fallen short in the past few cycles.”

The GOP’s statewide vote totals have been largely stagnant in recent elections, even as Democratic candidates for president and the Senate have steadily grown their share of the vote.

In the 2018 midterm elections, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) nearly defeated Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE (R-Texas) by turning out more Texas Democratic voters than Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE did in the 2016 presidential election.

To fight back, Texas Republicans are undertaking new voter registration efforts.

Top GOP donors in the state are launching a super PAC called Engage Texas, which aims to spend $25 million to register 2 million new Republican voters.

In particular, Texas Republicans are targeting evangelical voters, believing Christian conservatives are underrepresented at the polls because they’ve never felt the urgency to vote in the traditionally red state.

The state party is running its own efforts as well, launching new voter registration drives, volunteer field training courses and candidate workshops at an earlier stage this cycle than it ever has in the past.

The Texas GOP is also courting the out-of-state newcomers — the “refugees fleeing oppressive legislatures,” as Dickey calls them — who have made Texas the fastest growing state in the country.

“The question we have to answer in 2020 is whether the change in results Republicans saw in the major metro areas between 2014 and 2018 was a temporary dip or the start of a new trend,” Dickey said. “That depends on us. If we do what we need to do, we can ensure it was a dip. If we don’t, it could be the start of a long-term trend.”

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North Carolina voters sent Rep.-elect Dan Bishop (R) to Washington on Tuesday night, closing out the final election of the 2018 cycle with a Republican victory that was simultaneously relieving and pyrrhic.

Bishop, a state senator who represented parts of North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District, beat businessman and war veteran Dan McCready (D) by 2 percentage points.

But as Republicans and Democrats digested the results from a district that spans from the Charlotte suburbs to the rural Cotton Belt late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, both sides had reasons for concern.

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Republicans showed signs that their support in once rock-solid suburbs is still eroding, while Democrats wondered what they had to do to get some of their core voters to the polls.

Two competing fundamentals stand out: A win is a win, and the House Republican Conference will be one member larger, and one seat closer to reclaiming the majority, when Bishop takes the oath. On the other hand, how many other once-safe districts will be at risk if Republicans only won a district that voted for President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE by 12 points by about 4,000 votes?

The election results show Bishop’s campaign scored its most significant wins in Union County, a stalwart rural Republican hub east of Charlotte where he led McCready by about 12,500 votes.

But the most significant results came in the eastern, more rural counties in the 9th District. McCready won Cumberland County, where President Trump held a rally on Monday, by 1,000 votes in 2018; on Tuesday, Bishop won the county by 36 votes.

McCready’s 300-vote margin in Richmond County in 2018 became Bishop’s 500-vote margin in 2019. 

Bishop “basically camped out in the eastern part of the district,” said Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College.

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Trump, who won North Carolina’s electoral votes by only 2.6 percentage points in 2016, sought to claim credit for Bishop’s win.

“There’s no question that he’s the congressman-elect this morning because of the personal efforts of President Trump,” Trump’s campaign manager Brad ParscaleBradley (Brad) James ParscaleMORE told reporters on Wednesday. “We saw obvious voter movement in the area surrounding his rally.”

But it was in Robeson County, home of the Lumbee Indian Tribe, where Bishop won the race. 

Less than a year ago, McCready won Robeson County by almost 5,000 votes. That represented a huge swing from 2016, when the county voted overwhelmingly for President Trump. But on Tuesday, Bishop fought McCready to a virtual tie; McCready won Robeson County by just 231 votes.

“We had a very specific program to reach out to the Lumbee,” said Jim Blaine, Bishop’s chief strategist. “We talked a lot about what he had done in the legislature to specifically benefit and watch out for their interests.”

Bishop won 15 precincts in Robeson County that had favored McCready in 2018. Of those 15 precincts, ten are majority Lumbee.

“Precincts with heavy American Indian voter registration basically deserted McCready. It’s pretty remarkable, the difference in those precincts. He had double-digit drops in several heavy American Indian precincts,” Bitzer said.

But, worryingly for Republicans, McCready came so close to victory because of inroads he made in suburban Mecklenburg County.

Mecklenburg’s suburban enclaves were once cornerstones of the state Republican Party. Today, those suburbs are slipping, a worrying sign for a GOP that needs to win back similar areas around the country if it wants to reclaim its House majority.

On Tuesday, McCready won Mecklenburg by about 8,000 votes — slightly below his 9,000-vote margin there in 2018, but a margin that represents an improvement in his total vote share because of lower overall voter turnout. In 2018, McCready won Mecklenburg with 54 percent of the vote; in 2019, that share increased to 56 percent.

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That wasn’t enough to overcome Bishop’s advantage in rural parts of the district, but for Democrats, it bodes well in the perpetual battle for suburban voters.

“The divide keeps getting bigger. You saw in the rural areas that it’s a problem. But there’s still more people in suburban America,” said John Anzalone, the Democratic pollster who conducted surveys for McCready’s campaign. “It’s an absolute numbers game, and there’s just more people in suburban and exurban areas than there are in the rural areas. That is by no means giving up on narrowing the margin in the rural areas.”

Democrats also pointed to progress the party has made in turning out voters early, banking votes long before Election Day to more efficiently target voters over time. When the polls opened on Tuesday, McCready led by 8,000 votes, according to data published by the North Carolina Board of Elections.

Bishop erased McCready’s early-vote edge with a stronger performance on Election Day, when he netted more than 11,000 more votes than the Democrat. But the early vote edge, in a state as narrowly contested as North Carolina, gave Democrats hope for the future.

The spotlight now shifts from Charlotte and Fayetteville to Capitol Hill, where Republicans on Wednesday began considering the results — and their own chances next year.

Tuesday’s election recalled several other special elections that occurred in 2017 and 2018 in Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona and Ohio. In those elections, in deeply Republican districts, Republicans held on, but by closer-than-expected margins.

“I’ve seen this movie before. Everyone is happy the night of. Sigh of relief. Then the media narrative sets in,” said one glum Republican strategist. “Then come the retirements.”

— Max Greenwood contributed to this report

The number of pure independent voters is dwindling, leading to an increase in partisanship as both Democrats and Republicans move to rally their bases ahead of the 2020 presidential race.

A Pew Research survey released in March found that 81 percent of voters who called themselves independents actually lean toward the Republican or Democratic party, leaving only 7 percent of Americans who say they don’t lean toward a party.

Strategists say that trend is reflected on the 2020 trail, where President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE has been primarily focused on rallying his base, using a number of tactics such as calling for a wall along the southern border and attacking prominent Democrats. 

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Meanwhile, Democratic presidential contenders are increasingly moving to the left on issues such as health care and tax policy, reflecting a party that is more progressive and younger. 

Moderate candidates like former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE are under pressure to shift leftward on a number of issues like health care as the campaigns of progressive Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) and Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) continue to gain in popularity. 

The shrinking number of pure independent voters is a trend that pollsters have noted over recent years as a swath of voters who call themselves independent actually lean toward one party or the other, leaving only a declining number of pure independent voters.

“The vast majority of that group will lean to one of the two parties. We often talk about when we report our findings, we often combine Democrats and Democratic-leaners and Republicans and Republican-leaners,” Alec Tyson, a senior researcher at the Pew Research Center, told The Hill. 

The decreasing number of independents comes after the 2016 general election ended up hinging on a small group of voters in a handful of battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that tipped the race to President Trump.

Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE, the 2016 Democratic nominee, was widely seen as having lost due to Trump’s presence in those three states, as well as to lower turnout from key constituencies like African Americans. 

The battle in 2020 so far has been marked by rising partisan rhetoric from both sides.

Trump and Republicans have branded Democrats as “socialists” or accused them of having radical ideas, like “Medicare for All” and increased gun control measures. 

“It’s in the Republican interest to nationalize races,” Kelly Dietrich, founder of the National Democratic Training Committee, told The Hill. “They want everyone thinking that Democrats are just way too crazy, progressive, extreme on the coast, don’t care about anyone else but the liberal elite.” 

“It is a strategy to pull everything down into the mud,” he continued. 

On the Democratic side, Biden has been the front-runner in the race according to national polls, but Warren has seen enthusiasm around her campaign rise, becoming one of the former vice president’s main rivals.   

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Meanwhile, moderate candidates like Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetSome realistic solutions for income inequality Democratic senators kneel during moment of silence for George Floyd 21 senators urge Pentagon against military use to curb nationwide protests MORE (D-Colo.) or Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockKoch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators Overnight Energy: US Park Police say ‘tear gas’ statements were ‘mistake’ | Trump to reopen area off New England coast for fishing | Vulnerable Republicans embrace green issues Vulnerable Republicans embrace green issues in battle to save seats MORE (D), who would have traditionally best appealed to more-independent voters, have floundered in the race. Both were unable to qualify for the debate stage last week and continue to poll among in single digits at most.

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“You’ve got a handful of the underdogs who are trying to persuade independents like Sen. Bennet and Gov. Bullock,” Jennifer Holdsworth, senior vice president of issues management at MWWPR Public Affairs, said. 

That is not to say, however, that Democratic and Republican voters are all sharply partisan.

Self-described independents still comprise a large segment of the voters in 2018, but they tend to lean toward one party or the other.

Fifty-four percent of Republican-leaning independents said they voted in the 2018 midterm elections compared to 61 percent of Republican voters, according to Pew. 

At the same time, 48 percent of Democratic-leaning independents said they voted in 2018, compared to 59 percent of Democrats.

Thirty-three percent of independents with no political leaning said they voted in the same midterm elections, according to the survey.

Pure independent voters, though dwindling in numbers, can more easily influence races at the congressional level, according to strategists, especially in swing districts that have a large number of less partisan voters who are swayed by local issues.

“There’s a large swath of persuadable independents that congressional candidates are still trying to appeal to. It’s much less about a base vote unless you’re in a primary in a very safe, blue district,” said Holdsworth at MWWPR Public Affairs.

Approaching these voters means focusing less on Trump, unlike the 2020 presidential race where defeating — or reelecting — the president  is the primary issue.

“When you’re running as a Democrat, people know where you stand on Trump, you’re not going to change their mind,” he said. “What you need to do is talk and connect with voters about the issues that matter to them,” said Dietrich.

Red Bull team boss Christian Horner commended Pierre Gasly’s impressive performance at Spa but insisted there would not be another in-season swap between the Frenchman and Alex Albon.

Gasly, who was demoted from RBR to the junior bull squad after last years’ summer break in favour of Albon, has performed well with the Faenza-based outfit, the 24-year-old putting in a series of spirited drives, scoring points in four races this season and comprehensively outpacing teammate Daniil Kvyat.

Gasly’s momentum – validated by a P8 finish in Belgium – has led some to believe that another driver rotation could be in order, especially as Albon has struggled to match the pace of Red Bull teammate Max Verstappen.

Gasly: ‘Honestly I thought we were in the wall’

Horner is pleased with Gasly’s form but has made clear that it won’t incite the powers that be at Red Bull to undertake another swap.

“I think he’s performing well in the environment at AlphaTauri,” Horner said after last Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix.

“I think the car is a good car this year, I think it’s an easier car perhaps to drive than our car has been at times but I think, Alex’s performances on Sundays have been very strong.

“He drove another good race today; his defending, his overtaking, his attacking is always strong and I think we’re going in the right direction, so I think it’s good to see Pierre getting back up to speed, which is why he’s still on the programme. But we’re happy with the way things are.”

.@PierreGASLY on a There wasn’t much that could hold the #GasMan back last weekend ⛽️ ⁣
⁣#AlphaTauri #F1

pic.twitter.com/Snaz0MNPNR

— Scuderia AlphaTauri (@AlphaTauriF1) September 1, 2020

Albon’s raced among the top five at Spa, although at a fair distance from Verstappen. The British-Thai racer sparred with Renault’s Daniel Ricciardo for most of the afternoon but didn’t have the speed to gain an upper hand over the Aussie.

As he struggled with tyre degradation in the closing stages of the race, Albon succumbed to an attack from Renault’s second charger, Esteban Ocon, on the final lap, a move that pushed him down to sixth at the checkered flag.

“Alex just wasn’t able to hang on to that fifth place at the end. But I think nonetheless he did good job, defending hard throughout the grand prix,” said Horner.

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Italian fashion house Valentino announced
Tuesday it is giving the catwalks of Paris a skip this month because of the
coronavirus pandemic, instead presenting its new spring and summer
collection
in Milan.

For years a regular at the Paris Fashion Week, the designer brand cited
the
“unprecedented times” brought about by the coronavirus pandemic for the
change
of venue.

Paris officials earlier this week ruled face masks compulsory as France
recorded its highest number of infections since early May.

“In the current scenario, we need to make decisions in advance to protect
our first resources, our people, and to allow our brand to remain relevant
in
exploring alternative opportunities,” Valentino chief executive Jacopo
Venturini said.

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“This is why we feel that it would be more ethical to produce the new
show
in Italy, in Milano,” he said in a press release.

“Paris is the city that always hosted our shows and represents the DNA of
Valentino,” added creative director Pierpaolo Piccioli.
“The current situation has forced us to take an unusual decision,” he
said.

The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than
840,000 worldwide has also turned the fashion industry upside-down, with
virtual fashion weeks held for the first time in London, Milan and Paris in
June and July.(AFP)