Definitely not Walking on Sunshine

Back in the summer of 2007, like most Mexico fans, I was in awe. We had witnessed a player display qualities that had seldom if ever been seen in a player wearing the green national team shirt. Nery Castillo burst onto the scene with a terrific Copa America. Finally, Mexico had a speedy player who could create his own chances, but better yet finish them.

Now he is the footie equivalent of Katrina and the Waves. A one hit wonder.

Bill spoke about the business of the sport earlier today. Add Nery Castilo to the list of unprotected players for the MLS Expansion Draft.

Will either expansion team take a chance on a player who last looked dangerous three years ago? Will the Fire protect him if another player is chosen first? Is MLS even an option?

There are plenty of teams in Mexico who could use some offensive help and have a long history of signing players whose best days were behind them. But even they might stay away.

Nery is definitely not walking on sunshine.

MLS plan to rig Galaxy-Red Bulls final hits slight snag

Oh, like you saw a 0-3 beatdown coming.

I can't even say "I told you so" or "I saw it coming," because after a couple of weeks of Galaxy and Sounders fans telling me I was off base, that Beckham was hungry to win, that Kovalenko provided the toughness in the midfield, that Bruce Arena had made the adjustments – basically, that the stars had aligned – I doubted myself. Maybe the self-loathing Galaxy posts had become schtick, although unconsciously. Maybe I couldn't give credit where credit was due. Maybe I couldn't admit I was wrong.

Well, I wasn't wrong until I admitted I was wrong. Because I was right all along, until I was wrong. Next year, I'm sticking to my damned guns.

Last night was every Galaxy nightmare I had all year distilled into a frothy cup of poo. The last thing I want to do is take away credit from FC Dallas, because they were and are the better team, top to bottom – with one possible exception that I'll get into a little later, assuming I live to see the end of this post without having a freaking stroke. But the Galaxy were slow, stupid and weak when it counted most.

I'm not even that mad at them. I'm mad at myself for believing in them.

Okay, that's not fair – I am actually really mad at them. Before we go too much farther, I'd like to run far away from my fellow fans complaining about the refereeing. Yes, "Jair Marrufo? How about JAIL MARRUFO!" would be a neat slogan. But any team that puts Dema Kovalenko on the field waives any right to complain about rough play.

So Rob Stone at halftime is interviewing Bruce Arena – and keep in mind, it's only 1-0 at this point – and Stone asks "Golly, coach, what are you going to do about Kovalenko?" and Arena says "I'll deal with that in the locker room."

Like Bruce Arena didn't put Dema Kovalenko in the lineup. Like Kovalenko crashed the stage like Kanye West. Like Arena hasn't coached Kovalenko for years now. Like Arena is this happy-go-lucky carefree fool who doesn't give his players detailed freaking instructions. Like there's more than one instruction you would even give someone like Kovalenko. The idea of Bruce Arena getting on Dema Kovalenko's case at halftime is like OJ saying his knife slipped.

And, apparently, I still have to be Mugatu to Beckham's Zoolander. Wait, someone rushes back too soon from an Achilles tendon injury, and he's not fit? He has another injury? And he tries to play through it and he's completely ineffective? This doesn't quite match the triumphant performance of the Galaxy's training staff last year – "Eh, keeper's got a broken hand, but hell, what's the worst that could happen" – mainly because I'm not even sure Arena has any more power over Beckham than Brad Childress has over Brett Favre.

Meanwhile, the Coach of the Year believes the crucial factor was…Atiba "Hospital" Harris. The same Harris the Galaxy shrugged off when he was a forward at Chivas USA. But yeah, how do you defend against a forward who scores a goal once every eight games like clockwork? It's a big chess match, it really is. With pieces that capture each other once every ten freaking hours of game play. And Hyndman is probably right, the Galaxy did look baffled.

Let's talk about Landon for a minute. I took it for granted that when Donovan was basically The Incredible Hulk. The angrier he gets, the stronger he gets.

So he hulked out against the Rapids towards the end of the regular season, and I sat back and waited for the big trademarked Donovan comeback. Colorado 2, Galaxy 1, what the hell, man?

I guess that counts as fair warning for last night, when he all but spat on the grave of Anthony Wallace's puppy from childhood. "Ah, here we go," I thought. "Donovan's in a rage, this won't be close." And sure enough, it wasn't.

I was skeptical of the World Cup non-bounce, because I can think of several guys who went to the World Cup, played well, and continued to play well in the ongoing MLS season. Cobi Jones, Brian McBride, Frankie Hejduk, Eddie Pope – it's not impossible to make the transition, by any means.

But something was weird this time around. Buddle took forever to reacclimate, and he was the only one of the four US World Cup players who had any impact in the second half of the season. Maybe it was Bob Bradley. Or not – I sure didn't hear much from Roger Espinoza and Andrew Boyens, either.

Or, maybe it's specifically Donovan in World Cup years. 2001 and 2003 – San Jose wins MLS Cup. 2002 – Landon has a breakout World Cup, the Quakes win nothing. 2005 – Donovan breaks free of the Steve Sampson shackles and powers the Galaxy to a World Cup. 2006 – the Galaxy miss the playoffs. 2009 – Donovan is your MVP. 2010 – well, he did lead the league in assists, but I think most of those were to Buddle before the Cup.

Would the Western Conference final have been different if Donovan had taken August off, and the Galaxy had punted the Supporters Shield? Probably not. The Galaxy's weaknesses were well hidden, but then, deep, scary, paths to Hell are usually well hidden. There have been fluky, unrealistic, misleading 3-0 losses before, but this wasn't one of them.

Another reason for annoyance is having to admit that, okay, fine, David Ferreira really is the MVP. Usually I'm the first one to cheer on MLS being like every other American sport, but there's no sensible reason to have regular season MVPs and Best XIs and such. We're giving out diplomas based on midterms.

I suppose if we had the revote now, it wouldn't be terribly interesting, with close races now being landslides for Ferreira and Kevin Hartman. But if further evidence come in that Ferreira and Hartman really are…never mind, I'm 0-30 against windmills this year anyway.

But what I do want to get to this week – the Dallas-Colorado final? It'll be good for MLS.

Actually, it'll be great for MLS. I'll explain later this week, once I stop pouting.

CONCACAF King for a Day

I am not on board with with CONCACAF’s proposal to change the the way the region qualifies its participants for the World Cup. Judging from the responses, most of y’all ain’t on board either.

Concacaf has made some pretty dubious decisions over the years, but let’s pretend for a minute that we are the ones calling shots for the next four years. What would you change?

The first thing I would do is make the Gold Cup a quadrennial tournament, played the summer after the World Cup.

And I would stage it all over the region. There is no reason why the Cuscatlan or the Olimpico or Costa Rica’s new Chinese stadium couldn’t host the final. Wanna go island hopping? Cluster some of those Carribbean Islands that seem to wield so much power to host the event.

The tournament would suddenly be a lot more interesting. If CONCACAF wants to get better, it has to spread the wealth. And it has to show confidence in the countries other regions that they can handle it. Which they can. They have been staging the UNCAF tournament for years.

The following summer, I would pair up with South America to host a Copa de las Americas, to be played right after the Euro. It is something that I have been advocating for years. Grant Wahl also seems to think it is doable as well. The top two teams in each of the three Gold Cup groups join the 10 Conmebol teams. It would be a perfect warm up for the upcoming World Cup qualifying tournament.

I might tweak the qualifying format, so long as the end result is the Hex. It is like the mini version of the CONMEBOL round robin.

I like the idea of the Concachampions, but I have to figure out a way for teams to take it more seriously. Maybe I would renegotiate the TV contracts, which would make it more lucrative for the teams. But I would also play it either during the spring or during the fall, but not both. If the Libertadores can pull it off, there is no reason why the Concachampions can’t do it either. This would then give me the opportunity to explore another cartoon crossover with CONMEBOL. The Copa Americana club tournament in the fall.

So those are my modest proposals. How would y’all change things, you know, for the good of the game.

Marquez to the Retirement Home

You know what, I really have to stop laughing at my own jokes.

See, what I'm actually doing is, I'm laughing at the situation, and trying to funny about it, but it comes across as me laughing at how amusing I am, and I can see how that might get annoying. I'll work on that, assuming I'm ever interviewed by anyone ever again.

So, let's talk Designated Players some more, now that we know Marquez is going to Harrison and that Donovan isn't going to Goodison.

Matt knows so much more about the game in general, and the Red Bulls in particular, than I do, so I should really just accept his word for what's going to happen. Matt thinks Rafa Marquez is going to be an unmixed blessing for The World of Red Bull. Well, in the words of Joseph II in "Amadeus," there it is.

My reaction, which was "So much for beating the Crew, because Rafa Marquez is the worst player in Columbus Crew Stadium history," is pitiful in comparison. You'd have to take two or three games completely out of context, ascribe to them importance way out of proportion to the other big games of Marquez's career, and then, on top of that, assume past performances will predict future results in games played by entirely different teams.

And, best of all, the Crew and the Red Bulls have already played their regular season game in Columbus, so this wouldn't even matter until and unless they meet in the playoffs.

So I'm forced to fall back on pointing out that the reasons that a team Barcelona spitcans a 31 year old starting defender are not negligible. I may be overstating how Marquez is a bad act based on one game in 2002. Groovy. I'm not overstating how fragile Marquez has been the past couple of years.

Then again, Juan Pablo Angel didn't contribute a damned thing for Aston Villa the season or two before he went to New York, so maybe I should re-watch the All-Star Game, and reacquaint myself with the gap between big time European leagues and MLS.

Fine. Matt says crucial piece of the championship puzzle. I say fragile head case who will be this generation's Lothar Matthaeus. Po-tay-to, po-tah-to.

Marquez might or might not end the Designated Player flurry, depending on what happens in Los Angeles. No, not with Chivas USA.

People have had an interesting range of reaction to David Moyes pleading poverty:

Some conclude that Landon is now definitely staying with the Galaxy, but I read that very differently. One, contrary to what was said immediately after the World Cup, there most certainly is a price tag on Landon Donovan. It might be high. It might even be unrealistic and unreasonable. But it's there.

Which means MLS is thinking someone might pay for it. Note that Moyes said his Everton team will spend the least in the Premiership this year. That means nineteen teams might be able to afford Donovan, and every one of them got a chance to scout him in detail over the past year.

I don't think Moyes taking Everton out of contention means that Donovan is definitely staying. I think we're just back to where we were, speculating on where Donovan wants to go. Or, as they say in Latin, status quo vadis.

Of course, if he leaves, then he will no longer be a mortal lock to pass Jaime Moreno in the all-time MLS goal-scoring race.

(The real lesson from that stats page? If Stern John had stayed in MLS, he'd have had 400 goals by now.)

And just for a picture from life's other side (Woody Guthrie reference), let's listen in on the Colorado Rapids' search for a Designated Player:

Actually, it could have been worse. They were thinking about signing a DP in 2007, and, well, based on that player's output, he would have made Denilson look like Denis Law.

So, they're still the Colorao Rais. (No DP, you see.) How about the jersey sponsor?

Big name international friendly?

The Colorado Rapids, everybody!

Hey, you know what would help that franchise? A soccer-specific stadium. Kroenke should get on that.

Truthful Aguirre Sparks Faux Outrage

I have always maintained the position that the media that covers Mexican footie does not know how to handle the success of the teams they cover. It is always comical to watch the talking head shows after a big win, because they literally have nothing to talk about. The failures? Well, they all seem to channel Grantland Rice in their caustic prose. Or should I say Mr. Blackwell? And in this 24 hour news cycle in which we live, the molehills are all reported as the Himalayas, just like they are everywhere else. The latest of these is the reaction to an interview that Javier Aguirre conducted with a Madrid radio personality.

Listen to the Interview here

Vasco has always been honest and forthcoming interview, so I fail to see why it was so horrible for him to make the statements he made. What I do find offensive, though, is how the press interprets the meaning of what he said.

Javier Aguirre stated that he’ll go back to Spain after the world cup. No big surprise. He has spent the last 7+ years there. His children live there. He wants to coach in Europe. Very few coaches stay on for another world cup cycle. Of course, why let the facts get in the way of vilifying. “It’s clear that he came to Mexico, not to qualify the national team for the world cup, but because he couldn’t say no to the monetary offer.” Why is that such a bad thing? Aguirre had no intention of coaching Mexico ever again. Why not make it worth his while.

Let us not forget who made a hash of the qualifying. If they needed Vasco to come in and pull Mexico’s collective bottom out of the fire, they were going to have to pay for the privilege. Is he a hired gun? Absolutely. And I don’t understand why someone has to be raked over the coals for wanting to move on in their career after the world cup is over.

There were other “bombshells” in the interview. He made a reference to Mexico’s current safety issues. He chose his words wisely and could have easily painted an uglier picture. He didn’t. Those who were quick to admonish him for airing out dirty laundry work for the same publications that couldn’t wait to post pictures of Salvador Cabañas moments after he was shot.

But the one that seems to have made the pundits’ heads explode is when he described Mexico’s place in the football world. “Come on. Mexico is what it is. Mexico has been among the top 10 to fifteen teams in the past world cups. To make the jump from there to the top 3 is difficult. Being prudent, what I tell folks is we will do the best we can with the understanding that it will not be easy.”

What more do want a coach to say? Aguirre sees a very tricky group, and if he manages to navigate it successfully, the specter of a sleeping giant (Argentina) looms as a possible knockout opponent. Of course, the most of the media didn’t see it that way. The consensus saw it as nothing more than pessimism. They should know. That is one area in which they are bona fide experts. The truth? Well, they're still working on that one.

All the Marbles

Remember when this group was going to be a walk in the park?

Now to be fair, it was the Brits who were rubbing their hands together and snickering about how "Easy" this group was going to be for them.

The US was a bit more humble about it, certainly, but truth be told we pretty much felt the same way.

Thankfully the foul stench of the French National Team has been removed from what is otherwise a damned nice tournament and we're free to focus once again on Project 2010 which, it must be noted, has not yet failed to yield the 2010 World Cup for the USA.

Just one final Francoquestion:

Now that we've waved bon voyages to the battling bleus, is the NYRB marketing department gearing up a massive PR campaign trumpeting the arrival of a bench riding member of the most thoroughly contemptible team in World Cup history and crowning him King of New York soccer?

And will the first question he gets from the media be "So, Thierry, any regrets about having personally cheated Ireland out of their rightful place in the World Cup and do you think the French melt down was an example of how karma is a real bitch?"

Note to Frank Giase: no charge, my man.)

I also think it's high time we move past any gratuitous, petty and vindictive cheap shots at one of FIFAs' finest.

We can however freely speculate on the consequences of his a) gross incompetence b) frightening ineptitude c) painful imbecility or d) all of the above.

(And say what you want about FIFA – Lord knows I do – but those boys can handle a disaster with the best of them, and this is an excellent example. They had scheduled a "Media chat with the referees" event and they promised that all officials who were not traveling that day would be available. So who magically appears as the fourth official at a game in Nelspruit the day before the event and is thus on a plane and unavailable? That's right, the one guy everybody there wanted to talk to.)

In the days after the Coulibaly match there was a lot of speculation around the soccersphere about how, in an odd sort of a way, the disallowed goal had actually helped the US team gain notice and stature with the general public on the theory that while the US doesn't care much about soccer they – like most other countries – are pretty touchy when it appears someone, someplace has crapped on "their boys".

By this line of reasoning the game generated far more interest in the team than might otherwise obtain and, thus, in the long run is a good thing for US Soccer.

To which I say: Maybe, but only if they beat Algeria today. Otherwise it won't matter a lick. Lose and it gets forgotten. Win and it will be a vindication, proof that right makes might and good defeats evil and all is right with the world.

Everybody eats that stuff up with a spoon and whipped cream.

What it all comes down to is this:

Three weeks ago if you had said that all the US had to do to advance into the knockout rounds of the World Cup would be to beat Algeria, we all would have taken the deal in a heartbeat.

Of course, in a way, the worst possible result of the group from the US perspective wasn't the draw with Slovenia but rather Englands' draw with Algeria.

Because of that, Les Fennecs actually have as much on the line today as we do. If England had gotten the business done against them then the Desert Foxes would simply be going though the motions today, playing for pride and golden memories but not much else.

Instead, they're going to come out and fight like hell. Which is as it should be.

And if anyone thinks for a minute that it's going to be easy, I'd just direct you to The Suns' front page from January.

I'm going to be an idiot and worry about US women's national team TV ratings

There are two problems the US women need to address in the near future. To wit: the team is terrible, and no one wants to watch them.

Today's game should have been on television – you'd think that would be indisputable, but the Powers That Are disputed it.

Now, the team didn't exactly plan on these two games against Italy, so something would have been bumped to make room on the schedule. Not the easiest thing in the entire world, but certainly possible. I mean, this is sports. Schedules are juggled every day. Let's see what was on this afternoon shall we?

Fox Soccer Channel had: Fulham v. Birmingham City; Fox Soccer Report; and Juve v. Viola. Only the most dedicated, intractable, unreconstructed Eurosnob would claim that the US women's team, even in its current state, wouldn't get much better ratings than Fulham against Brum City. Hell, I'd bet that game would have gotten acceptable ratings in Birmingham itself. As far as whether bumping a Serie A upper-midtable match would have worked – well, there's no accounting for taste. There would have been SOME Italian soccer if they had shown the US game. And probably not that much less scoring.

And I'd be the very last person to say that Juventus games are still fixed.

"Last" in the Matthew 20:16 sense, that is.

But fine, let's assume there were contracts with foreign leagues that would have cost Fox more than broadcasting an actual important game.

Which leaves the ESPN family of networks. Let's see what was on the worldwide leader.

Buncha college football. LOTS of college football. Interesting rivalry games, most of them. I can sort of see why Disney didn't – hello, what's this:

ESPN Classic – Homecoming with Rick Reilly. Featuring Landon Donovan. Originally shown in June.

You know what? I think that could have been bumped.

So why wasn't it? This was almost certainly the USSF's decision. ESPN could have demanded an unreasonable fee to…show a live sports event that would have, with absolute certainty, outdrawn what they were going to show. It's possible.

FIFA rigmarole probably played a part – this wasn't a game where the fed pocketed most of the money, it was a FIFA match. At least the proceeds weren't being skated off into Jack Warner's account – er, I mean, charged by CONCACAF. But…how much could the Italian FA, UEFA, or FIFA possibly have wanted? Yeah, a lot of hands were out, but how much could those rights have possibly cost?

No, I think this was the Fed being more than a little embarrassed about these games. They only had to play them because Mexico beat the US for the first time ever. The women's team is the one that's supposed to win all the time. That's been their big post-Mia marketing tactic.

Which is another little problem – the team hasn't replaced Mia Hamm as their icon. That's unfair to everyone involved – Nike put an extraordinary amount of time and energy into Mia Hamm, who was not only marketed perfectly, but could live up to the hype.

It's unreasonable to ask Nike and the USSF to replace a once-every-three-generations phenomenon like that, but Nike hasn't tried. Probably because in the late 90's, they weren't trying to shore up bad investments in Tiger Woods and LeBron James at the same time.

It's only slightly less unfair to blame the current players for not being as good, or as marketable. Mia wasn't as good as Michelle Akers, after all. And while Abby Wambach is insanely intimidating, Hamm wasn't marketed as a teddy bear, either.

But…the team of the turn of the millennium wasn't anywhere near as dominant as they were in the 90's, and the team of the Teens is off to an even poorer start. Most of the attention recently has been given to college players – Rodriguez, Cheney, and now Alex Morgan. Which is fine, if they pan out. Hopefully Amy Rodriguez's play for Philadelphia is more representative than her play for Boston. But Lauren Cheney had a very quiet year for the Breakers (hm, maybe Boston is the problem), and Morgan is still screwing around in college. I like Morgan, too, but she has to get to the next level pronto. NCAA-level pretty clearly isn't going to cut it anymore.

The US has lost a couple of pretty important players recently. Lori Chalupny doesn't believe her career is over, but, this isn't a good time to make the case that concussions aren't a big deal. Kate Markgraf had to retire sometime, I suppose. Hope Solo is out with a shoulder injury – she might come back, but I have to wonder how enthusiastically she'd be welcomed. Abby? Kris? Your thoughts?

The women's team has an advantage the men's team doesn't – screwing up in the World Cup can be solved the next year in the Olympics. So what if this year's World Cup looks like it's going to be a Hindenburg in reverse – there's always London 2012. Maybe the federation should keep the team off television entirely until then.

A Strange Decision in Dallas

In most cases, the Cardinal rule in assembling a management team is to look for people of widely varied experience, in order to bring the broadest possible perspective to key decision making.

Which is what makes Dallas FCs' hiring of longtime Penn State head coach Barry Gorman as their new Technical Director so puzzling.

It's not simply that virtually all of his experience (don't give me a bunch of crud about doing clinics in Africa or sitting in the stands at Euro 2008, which is prominently featured in his resume) is of the American college variety. We all know that the whole college players-to-MLS issue is complicated at best.

But since MLS is so very dependent on at least a certain number of American college players (a theory that Hans Backe in New York is currently attempting to disprove) it's hard to make the case that there's something inherently wrong with bringing in someone with a wealth of college experience, insight and contacts.

And in a league whose two most successful head coaches – Bruce Arena and Sigi Schmid – both came directly from the ranks of college coaching (albeit in a different era) (and isn't it lovely that MLS has been around long enough to have more than one "era"? You sure could have gotten good odds on that one back in 1996), you really can't say that hiring a successful collegiate coach is a terrible idea in every case.

However, there's the rub: between the two of them Hyndman and Gorman were NCAA Division I head coaches for a staggering 46 years and never won, as Dan would say, Jacques Squat. Zip. Zero.

Schmid and Arena won a combined 8 NCAA Men's Championships, and have sent so many players to MLS that it's pointless to list them.

What you have here is two guys right around 60 years old who came to MLS without one single iota of MLS experience. I'm all for old people tackling new careers, but few would consider taking up coaching professional sports at the same time as you become eligible for Medicare to be a promising choice.

I don't care what sport you're talking about or what league, the people who are best equipped to identify and develop players who will succeed in that league are guys who have been there themselves, who've spent a lot of time playing and/or coaching there and have direct, intimate, personal knowledge of how you do and don't succeed there.

This guy brings none of that. The Hyndman pick was head scratching, but perhaps explicable. Bringing in his twin brother doesn't add anything of value to the mix.

As usual, BUZZ HAS SOME INSIGHT that at least sheds some light:

They're old, old buddies.

"The opportunity to work alongside a lifetime friend like Schellas Hyndman is a journey that I want to be on."

They go on to talk about all the wonderful times they've had together over the years, traveling, scouting, chasing women in walkers. It's quite touching really.

As for the stuff about how Gorman has tons of experience recruiting foreign players for Penn State, that's simply bunk. Yes, over the years he's had some minor success picking up kids who the professional clubs have rejected and offering them an alternative: four years in the US and a college education.

I wonder if that's a tough sell for a kid who's just been dumped from an academy and whose other options are canola farming and working in the local coal mine.

Well here's some news: if you're after a foreign player and there's money involved, they don't pay much attention to anything remotely like NCAA Regulations.

As I looked at Buzz' interview notes, one line jumped out at me:

“I consider myself to be a soccer person. It doesn’t matter what the environment is.

Now where have we head that before? Oh yes, every single one of the hundreds of people who have come into MLS from someplace else.

The track record for people who have uttered statements like that is dismal at best.

A few months ago I pointed to the SOCCER BALLS FOR HAITI project.

To their surprise, it's become a monster that is apparently taking over their apartment:

They're currently coping with over 1400 soccer balls and 300 donated hand pumps. I have nothing but admiration for guys who tackle projects like this, but seriously guys: have you seen that show "Hoarders"?

Just saying.

The playoffs so far

The Lord knows that higher seeds in MLS are anything but invincible, but usually the best way to beat them in the playoffs is to Win Your Home Game.

Good news for San Jose fans – botching the home game is not just theoretically survivable. In 2006, the Rapids lost to Dallas 2-1, won the game in Dallas the next week 3-2, then advanced on penalties.

And in 2005, the Fire tied 0-0 before piling all over DC United 4-0 in RFK, thanks partially to a Christian Gomez red card and Peter Nowak running the defending champs ragged during the regular season.

So it's possible to get things done if the home cooking was burnt.

Slightly more rationally, the Red Bulls are probably going to advance because they're so much better than the Quakes. This would have carried a little bit more weight if I had managed to write it before last night, but this one man band thing San Jose has going isn't going to fly very far in the postseason. And hat tricks against Chivas USA don't mean a lot when the opponent isn't in relegation danger.

I assume this hasn't just occurred to Frank Yallop, although you never know:

I choose to see this as a call-out of his team, more than an admission of gameplan failure. I mean, it seems more likely a professional coach would say this than "Tell the other team we're going to run the offense through Geovanni, who by the way was an enormous disappointment for us tonight."

The only reason I'm not totally writing off the Quakes is because I'm a Galaxy fan with PTSD from 2003. The rest of you can probably plan on Red Bull Arena hosting the Eastern semifinal.

Probably against Colorado, even though they only won 1-0 at home. Gary Smith has built a team of veterans who largely have been through this sort of thing before – Larentowicz, Mullan, Moor, Thompson, Pickens in addition to Mastroeni and Casey – wow, what happened to the Rapids' youth movement? Mike Petke sneering at the Rapids ownership might theoretically have given some edge to this potential matchup, except that most everyone involved with the Rapids secretly agrees. Or not-so-secretly.

Meanwhile, in the West – and, of course, the game that was played the farthest east of any of the games this weekend – I learned, oh, about eleven months and three weeks ago that no, Salt Lake is not necessarily doomed if they don't have Javier Morales.

I'd go into a detailed breakdown about how the Rio Tinto game shapes up, how missing Atiba Harris frankly benefits Dallas in my opinion – but it's just going to be a big old fight. I suppose we can argue the relative merits of the red cards, but I think the bigger picture will be even more physical play. Both teams are complaining about their respective red cards, even though both teams don't have much of a case. Morales' yellow cards were moronic, and there's no way Hospital Harris should get the benefit of the doubt.

One thing's for sure – Real Salt Lake did not need a loss in Dallas.

Wait, what?

We needed a loss, says Beckerman

Well, at least Salt Lake got a goal, which could easily end up being very important in a scenario where every score counts –

Oh, for GOD'S SAKE. What is it with these guys, reverse altitude sickness? Okay, Jason, give Dallas a 1-0 lead in the first five minutes next Saturday, I dare you.

And, last and least, two of the most annoying franchises in the hemisphere meet in what should be a wide-open, exciting series. The Sounders have looked really good, the Galaxy have not. The Sounders seem to be favorites, even though Buddle and Donovan are still two of the best players in the country – maybe the two best. I'm going to be counter-contrarian, and agree with the majority. The Galaxy have been very weak in central defense recently, and I think Montero, Nkufo and Zakuani are going to dive – er, skip right by them.

Final Norteño Shaping up to be a Good One

Monterrey took Santos down in Torreon earlier this season

Terrific stadia, fanatical crowd support, and two very talented teams. The Mexican Futbol final has the necessary ingredients to become a classic. The goal scorers will undoubtedly take all the headlines, as always. But, as always, the finals may be decided by those players who names or positions aren’t flashy enough to make the papers.

Both teams, though, will have some key absences in the first leg of the final Thursday night. Will either team step up and exploit the

GOALKEEPER

Santos’ Oswaldo Sanchez is older and has much more experience than his counterpart. But even with all those extra years on the pitch, Sanchez has only managed to win a couple of league titles. His presence in the box is comforting, but he has always had issues with aerial center passes, and his penalty saving is almost non-existent.

Jonathan Orozco may not have Sanchez' experience, but he is still one of Mexico's best keepers. He has complete command of the box and can match Sanchez parry for parry when it comes to reflex saves. He has also shown to be more effective than Sanchez when it comes to stopping spot kicks.

Edge – Orozco. This final may well end in a shoot-out.

Defense

Both back lines will have their hands full with the two most dynamic attacks in Mexican futbol.

Santos’s defense is the team’s biggest weakness. To make matters worse, they will be without their defensive leader, Panama international (and former Monterrey player) Felipe Baloy, who collected a second yellow Sunday vs. America. Will it be 20 year old Uriel Alvarez who gets the nod, or the diminutive, but indefatigable Ivan Estrada? Regardless, neither of these two will find it difficult to match up against Aldo de Nigris’ aerial game.

Monterrey will have their full complement of central defenders: Dulio Davino, Ricardo Osorio, and Jose Maria Basanta. The three have been solid all season long, but they do have trouble with speed. Guess what Santos has in adundance?

Edge – Monterrey. Baloy’s absence leaves question marks in an already shaky Santos defense.

MIDFELD

Both teams will be without their midfield generals in the first leg due to injury. Santos will be without Juan Pablo Rodriguez and Luis Perez is out for Monterrey. Rayados also have an abundance of quality creative types. Walter Ayovi, Nery Cardozo, and Oswaldo Martinez can all take over games for Monterrey. The problem is there aren’t enough spots for all of them. Santos’ depth will be tested, and it may mean that players will have to play out of their comfort zone in the first leg. We also may have a Daniel Ludueña sighting.

Edge – Monterrey has more depth, but Santos has a huge X-factor in Ludueña. When la achita is in the mood, there are none better.

FORWARD

Santos is stacked up top. As is Monterrey. Santos has league scoring leader, Christian Benitez. The guy who came in second is Monterrey Humberto Suazo. They are the this season's best forwards and will garner a lot of attention. So what about the second guys?

Aldo de Nigris catalyzed the passing of his brother into an unforgettable performance in the A09 liguilla. It was a real shame that an injury prevented him from making the World Cup. He has been solid this season as well, as he has benefited from putting the cherry on the plays generated by the people around him. De Nigiris is a good goal scorer, but he is more of a finisher, and not as much of a creator. The same can’t be said for the Goal Scientist, Carlos Darwin Quintero. The Colombian international has the speed and the ball skills to make his own opportunities, which will come in handy when Monterrey collapses its defenders around Benitez.

Edge – Santos may not have the midfield that Monterrey has, but their attackers don’t necessarily have to rely on them as much for service. A huge bonus in what are likely to be tightly played games.

COACHING

Ruben Omar Romano is one of several coaches in Mexico who have branched from the Ricardo La Volpe coaching tree. The foundation of the coaching philosophy is solid, but it has bore little fruit as far as league titles. Victor Manuel Vucetich is a little more pragmatic, and takes each game for what it is. He will probably manage risk a little more conservatively than his counterpart. Romano is in his 4th final and has yet to win one.

Conventional wisdom says Vucetich will play defensively in the first leg, and let Santos dictate the pace. Santos has to protect its thin defense, though, so they might concede a little more possession than people think.

Our next installment on the final preview will include thoughts from supporters in the bigsoccer community as well as “celebrity” fans.