The invisible primary has begun for Democrats plotting a presidential path in 2020.
Would-be candidates are hitting the trail, sharpening their positions, seeking the right political “lane” and holding private conversations with donors about their prospects.
Invisible primaries typically start after the midterm elections, but Democrats thinking about the 2020 race appear to be getting a head start.
The battle to become the Democratic nominee is shaping up for an early start, and political observers say it’s anyone’s to win.
“We live in a world where presidential campaigns are four-year cycles, and many potential candidates don’t have the luxury to delay conversations with potentials donors, validators, [Democratic National Committee] members and operatives until after the midterms,” said Adam Parkhomenko, a Democratic strategist who co-founded Ready for Hillary, the super PAC that helped push Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE into the 2016 race.
Parkhomenko said campaign operatives are already having conversations on behalf of their candidates, whether or not they are sanctioned.
Donor phone lines, meanwhile, are already lighting up, and earlier than ever.
“I think lots of folks are anxious to test the waters and put out feelers about what a race might look like and if they’ll get the support they’ll need,” said one Democratic donor. “Typically those conversations don’t really happen until after the midterm, but I think it’s a different time. The election cycle never ended.”
Candidates can be a bit coy about their intentions in 2018, suggested one top Democratic fundraiser about the conversations.
The fundraiser spoke of unofficial conversations with a number of potential 2020 candidates.
“Nothing official, but lots of wink winks,” the fundraiser said.
Eric Jotkoff, a Democratic strategist who worked on the Obama and Clinton campaigns, said today’s invisible primary is national in scope and focused far beyond the key primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Instead of camping out in those states, candidates are working on digital content and trying to reach a coast-to-coast audience to build their brands.
“Rather than just aiming for a TV hit on [Manchester television station] WMUR or coverage in the Des Moines Register, the process these days is much more national,” Jotkoff said. “Now presidential hopefuls work on digital content they hope goes viral and try to get mentions on ‘The Rachel Maddow Show’ in addition to eating fried food at the Iowa State Fair or stopping by the Red Arrow Diner in Manchester.”
To date, would-be candidates such as Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.), Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) and Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.) have been out on the stump for 2018 candidates in must-win states including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, a state that went for Trump two years ago that had not supported a Republican since 1984.
Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-N.J.) has also campaigned alongside 2018 candidates and drew headlines when he appeared with Democrat Doug Jones as he fought and won a special election for a Senate seat in Alabama earlier this year.
Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Warren, Pressley introduce bill to make it a crime for police officers to deny medical care to people in custody Senate Dems press DOJ over coronavirus safety precautions in juvenile detention centers MORE (D-N.Y.) has also been trying to carve out a name for herself by playing a leading role in sexual harassment issues.
Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE — who is considering another bid for the White House — released the book “Promise Me, Dad” and has been crisscrossing the country to talk about Democratic values and the way forward.
On Tuesday, during a speech at an event put on by his own foundation and the Brookings Institution, Biden — speaking about the future of the middle class — gave a possible preview of what his message might be on the trail.
“I love Bernie, but I’m not Bernie Sanders,” Biden said. “I don’t think 500 billionaires are the reason we’re in trouble. The folks at the top aren’t bad guys. But this gap is yawning, and it’s having the effect of pulling us apart. You see the politics of it.”
Some dark-horse candidates also have been making the rounds.
Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu spent time this spring doing interviews on TV to promote his new book, “In the Shadows of Statues.”
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti also has been putting out feelers to donors.
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In the donor world, fundraisers are already talking about potential paths to victory.
If Sanders runs, and Warren and Biden don’t, Sanders will be off to a flying start because of his established network, said a fundraiser who spoke to The Hill.
“Just a numbers game,” the fundraiser said, adding that if Warren and Biden run, “then there’s a path for others to break through.”